10/18/2024 Myanmar (International Christian Concern) — A report this week from The Irrawaddy indicates that Min Aung Hlaing, head of Myanmar’s ruling military junta, may be planning a visit to China this month. While China has maintained close relations with the junta since it seized power in February 2021, this would be Min Aung Hlaing’s first trip to China in his newly inflated role.

The trip, should it happen as reported, would lend legitimacy to the junta in the wake of a series of major military losses. It comes as the junta conducts a limited census as an apparent step toward holding elections. Analysts and opposition forces in the country have expressed skepticism that the military can conduct a legitimate census. They have suggested that the elections may be a shallow attempt to create an air of legitimacy around the junta and increase its international recognition.
China and Russia have consistently supported the military regime with financial and military assistance even as the international community has, for the most part, severed ties with the brutal military since the coup. While Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand have recognized the Tatmadaw government, most of the international community has refused to grant such recognition.

Despite this support, experts believe that the Burmese military is atrophying rapidly, with as few as 150,000 personnel remaining after the loss of about 21,000 through casualties or desertions since the 2021 coup. This number is significantly smaller than previous estimates of 300,000 to 400,000 and calls into question the junta’s ability to sustain its nationwide military campaign, especially after a series of high-profile losses in recent months.

Militias representing various ethnoreligious minorities began coordinating a major offensive in late 2023 and have seized numerous military strongholds in the months since. Earlier reports from the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar suggest that the anti-junta militias’ gains have reduced the area under solid Tatmadaw control to as little as 17%.

In fighting in July and August, rebels seized Lashio, an important artery for trade between Myanmar and China. It is also home to an airport and one of the military’s 14 regional headquarters. Reports indicate that the rebels may have captured three generals located at the base, while the commander may have fled to China. Other sources have said that the deputy commander, Brigadier General Tin Tun Aung, was killed in a rocket attack near Lashio. The rebel fighters claim that 4,000 fighters and their families surrendered, which, if true, would make the defeat in Lashio the military’s worst to date.

Rebel control of Lashio gives the militias control over a significant artery of trade between Myanmar and China.

Myanmar is a patchwork mosaic of ethnic and religious groups. Though a strong majority of the population is ethnic Burman, and an even greater percentage is Buddhist, the communities that make up the remainder are well-established, well-organized, and, for the most part, predate the formation of the modern state by centuries.

In many cases, Myanmar’s ethnic minorities have taken on a distinct religious identity as well. About 20% to 30% of ethnic Karen are Christians, while other groups are more than 90% Christian. This overlap of ethnic and religious identity has created a volatile situation for believers.

Representing an extremist interpretation of Buddhism, the Burmese military has a long history of violence against the people of Myanmar, including against ethnic and religious minorities like the Muslim-majority Rohingya and Christian-majority Chin.

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