9/16/2024 Myanmar (International Christian Concern) — Military officials in Myanmar recently announced a census slated to take place in October — even as the ruling military junta continues to suffer major battlefield losses and controls only a tiny fraction of the country. Estimates suggest that the military, which has long persecuted ethnoreligious minorities, controls less than 17% of the country, casting into doubt its ability to effectively conduct a census.

In August, rebels seized Lashio, an important artery for trade between Myanmar and China. It is also home to an airport and one of the military’s 14 regional headquarters. Reports indicate that the rebels may have captured three generals located at the base, while the commander may have fled to China. Other sources have said that the deputy commander, Brigadier General Tin Tun Aung, was killed in a rocket attack near Lashio. The rebel fighters claim that 4,000 fighters and their families surrendered, which, if true, would make the defeat in Lashio the military’s worst to date.

The move to conduct a national census is significant as a possible precursor to general elections — something the junta has delayed repeatedly since coming to power in 2021. Marching on the capital city of Naypyidaw in the early hours of Feb. 1 that year, the military — known locally as the Tatmadaw — acted to stop the installation of a new slate of recently elected government officials. In the time since, military officials have repeatedly extended the country’s state of emergency, delayed elections, and cracked down severely on pro-democracy protestors.

Analysts and opposition forces in the country have expressed skepticism that the military can conduct a legitimate census. While Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand have recognized the Tatmadaw government, most of the international community has refused to grant such recognition. The census and possible elections to follow may be an attempt to create an air of legitimacy around the junta and increase its international recognition.

The junta’s interest in democracy lacks sincerity, given its history of democratic subversion. In the years since taking power, the junta has jailed, injured, or killed thousands of pro-democracy protestors and is currently holding Aung San Suu Kyi, the country’s last democratically elected leader, under arrest.

As part of an interactive dialogue in May 2024, U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk spoke of the dire state of human rights in Myanmar under the ruling military junta. Since taking power on Feb. 1, 2021, the junta has killed thousands of civilians and displaced an estimated 2.3 million more.

“Myanmar is in agonizing pain,” Türk said in his statement, “and the disintegration of human rights continues at breakneck speed.” Continuing, he described junta military tactics such as beheadings, midnight bombings of homes, and other brutalities. “We are bearing witness to a country being suffocated by an illegitimate military regime.”

The junta is known to abduct children, forcing them to walk ahead of their troops through minefields. In many cases, their victims are members of ethnic and religious minority communities fighting back against the atrocities of a military that has waged a decades-long war of ethnic and religious cleansing.

Representing an extremist interpretation of Buddhism, the Burmese military has a long history of violence against the people of Myanmar, including against ethnic and religious minorities like the Muslim-majority Rohingya and Christian-majority Chin.

Responding to Türk, U.S. Ambassador Michéle Taylor joined his condemnation of the military’s violence against civilians and highlighted “the need for the international community to do more to impede its access to arms and financial resources,” a longstanding priority of the U.S. in response to the situation.

Unfortunately, the Burmese military enjoys consistent support from Russia and China, which continue to support it economically and militarily despite sweeping international sanctions.

Despite this support, experts believe that the Burmese military is atrophying rapidly, with as few as 150,000 personnel remaining after the loss of about 21,000 through casualties or desertions since the 2021 coup. This number is significantly smaller than previous estimates of 300,000 to 400,000 and calls into question the junta’s ability to sustain its nationwide military campaign, especially after a series of high-profile losses in recent months.

Myanmar is a patchwork mosaic of ethnic and religious groups. Though a strong majority of the population is ethnic Burman, and an even greater percentage is Buddhist, the communities that make up the remainder are well-established, well-organized, and, for the most part, predate the formation of the modern state by centuries.

In many cases, Myanmar’s ethnic minorities have taken on a distinct religious identity as well. About 20% to 30% of ethnic Karen are Christians, while other groups — such as the Chin — are more than 90% Christian. This overlap of ethnic and religious identity has created a volatile situation for believers.

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