On the heels of a rigged election that saw Myanmar’s military tighten its grip on power, the situation for the country’s many ethnoreligious minority communities is looking bleak. 

The military announced the capture of two strategic border towns in the last week, taken from Karenni and Chin militias. Mawtaung, on the border with Thailand, was seized from the Karen National Union, while Tonzang, close to the border with India, had been under Chin’s control since May 2024. 

Just two of the country’s 135 recognized ethnic groups, and among the most populous minorities, the Chin and Karen people contain a remarkably high concentration of Christians, making them a double target of the military, which perpetuates violent Buddhist nationalism. 

While Myanmar is about 91% Buddhist, as much as 90% of the Chin and 50% of the Karenni are Christian, largely due to the efforts of early Baptist missionaries such as Adoniram Judson and subsequent missionaries. 

Bellingcat, an investigative institution, recently documented how the military has systematically eradicated villages in the western Rakhine state, even going so far as to erase villages from maps after bombing and burning them to the ground. Rakhine is the historic home of the Rohingya Muslims targeted in an ongoing genocide that has killed tens of thousands of Rohingya and displaced more than a million others. 

Shifting Tide for Myanmar’s Military 

The military’s ranks — which have atrophied for years due to attacks, defections, and low morale — recently swelled with the addition of tens of thousands of conscripts forced to join the military or face criminal consequences. 

China has invested heavily in the military, supplying it with arms alongside Russia and bolstering the regime through lucrative mining deals. 

Analysts connected to communities on the ground describe an atmosphere of weariness among the resistance. “There are many saying that the local population doesn’t care much who will win the war, but [just want] to stop fighting,” local political analyst Aung Thu Nyein told the Associated Press. 

This lack of popular support may prove dangerous for the ethnic militias, which have fought the military regime — known locally as the Tatmadaw — for decades. Some even fear that the resistance may peter out almost entirely after nearly 80 years. 

Myanmar’s current parliament is controlled by a coalition of parties loyal to the military, as well as by the military itself, which occupies a constitutionally mandated 25% of the seats. Together with its allies, the military controls nearly 90% of the seats across the bicameral legislature. 

Min Aung Hlaing and the new parliament came to power on the heels of what was widely criticized as an unfair election. The main opposition parties were excluded, and effective polling was impossible in areas outside the military’s control. 

Consistent Pattern of Religious Repression 

Earlier this year, the Tatmadaw bombed a predominantly Mennonite Christian village, drawing international condemnation. This strike was not an anomaly — according to the Myanmar Peace Monitor, the Tatmadaw struck more than 1,000 civilian locations during a recent 15-month period. 

In March 2025, the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) released a report criticizing the Tatmadaw for its systematic repression of religious minorities and urging the international community to increase attention to those persecuted in Myanmar. 

“The country has seen the displacement of over 3.5 million people in recent years,” the USCIRF report noted, “including more than 90,000 in Christian-majority Chin State, 237,200 in Kachin State, and one million Muslim-majority Rohingya refugees.” 

In a March 2026 report, USCIRF again highlighted the Tatmadaw’s egregious attacks on religious minorities of all kinds, including Christians. “Churches,” the report noted, “particularly those in Christian-majority areas, continued to endure airstrikes and torching.” 

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