The Islamic State terror group has launched an unusual series of attacks in Syria during the last week, part of what it calls a “new phase of operations” against the new Syrian government.

The U.S. is actively withdrawing from bases in the area, including from its largest military base in the northeast, according to reports.

Fighting between Syrian government forces and U.S.-allied Kurdish forces has weakened the resistance faced by IS. In January, the Syrian government seized the city of Raqqa from the Kurdish SDF militia. It also advanced on Al-Hol refugee camp, allowing tens of thousands of residents associated with IS to escape into the surrounding area.

Al-Hol camp has long been guarded by Kurdish SDF forces who, facing attack by Syrian government forces, were forced to withdraw from the camp in January. Government forces were unable or unwilling to guard the camp in their place, allowing what some Western diplomats estimate to be more than 20,000 of the 23,000 residents to escape.

The U.S. withdrawal at this moment opens a window of opportunity for IS and other terror groups that they have not seen for some time.

On Monday, IS militants killed four government security personnel in an attack on a checkpoint west of Raqqa. On Tuesday, IS claimed to have killed and wounded additional military personnel in Raqqa. A separate attack in the city of Mayadin killed a soldier and was also claimed by IS, the second attack in Mayadin in the last few days.

A memo this week from Cyprus, which currently holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, to member states expressed concerns that terrorist groups may work to take advantage of escalating tensions to recruit new fighters.

IS has been relatively inactive in and around Syria since its territorial defeat in 2019, instead shifting its focus to Africa, which is, today, the global hotbed of terrorist violence. Using various tactics, IS has formed or come alongside local terrorist organizations that now span the African continent.

Al-Hol had become a fertile breeding ground for extremism, deepening the problem it was originally meant to address. Extremist networks operated effectively within the camp and grew with little resistance.

While some programs to deradicalize and reintegrate residents existed, they were woefully inadequate for the scale of the problem. Local communities also resisted attempts to integrate Al-Hol residents into society, fearing that accepting them would invite radicalization.

Most escapees reportedly reached Idlib, while others fled to Türkiye and other parts of the region.

The mass escape and escalating attacks underscore the lingering consequences of the collapse of IS nearly seven years after its territorial defeat and the extreme difficulty Al-Sharaa faces as he works to build a cohesive nation. Although IS does not currently control significant areas of Syria or Iraq, security analysts warn that the dispersal of thousands of individuals once connected to the organization could complicate counterterrorism efforts in the region.

Al-Sharaa himself was previously a member of IS and is an avowed jihadist, making his motives difficult to discern. While he has made bold public statements about his value of peace and tolerance, forces associated with his government have repeatedly committed or allowed mass tragedies to take place, often against members of ethnoreligious minorities.

Civil society leaders, human rights watchdogs, and minority community representatives have expressed continued concern about the status of ethnoreligious minority communities in Syria as massacres, sporadic attacks, and widespread marginalization have continued to mark Sharaa’s nearly year-long administration.