The military junta ruling Myanmar, midway through a three-phase election cycle designed to create a veneer of legitimacy for a group of rulers who deposed the elected government in 2021, announced last week that it would release more than 6,000 prisoners.

The state-run MRTV channel said the release was humanitarian and designed to “bring peace of mind to the public” as they prepare for the next round of elections.

According to Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a watchdog group, 30,247 pro-democracy activists and civilians have been arrested since the 2021 coup, in which the military overthrew the recently elected government, arresting its leaders and disbanding independent political parties in the process.

According to a Jan. 8 daily briefing by the group, nearly 23,000 political prisoners remain in custody, though that number does not seem to have decreased since the announcement of their custody. It is unclear if any political prisoners were included in the mass amnesty. A list of released prisoners was never produced by the junta, complicating verification of their identity and reason for incarceration.

The junta’s highest profile prisoner, Nobel laureate and deposed democratic leader of the country, Aung San Suu Kyi, was not among those released. She is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest after being convicted by the junta on trumped-up criminal charges. Recent reports indicate that her health may be failing, possibly due to inadequate medical attention.

The National League for Democracy, Suu Kyi’s political party and the landslide winner of the 2020 election, was dissolved, along with other independent political parties, by the junta after it took power. Only parties favorable to the junta are running in the current election, and criticizing the election is now illegal in the country.

Unsurprisingly, given the stacked deck, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party is leading after the first phase, which saw little voter turnout.

“An election organized by a junta that continues to bomb civilians, jail political leaders, and criminalize all forms of dissent is not an election,” Tom Andrews, the U.N. Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Myanmar, posted on X. “It is a theatre of the absurd performed at gunpoint.”

The next round of voting is scheduled for Jan. 11, with the final round on Jan. 25. Final results are expected to be released in February.

Critics say that a free and fair election is impossible — the military only controls a small fraction of the country and has spent the last four years eliminating political opposition, jailing proponents of democracy, and waging war against the civilian population.

While Russia, China, and India have provided the junta with support both internally and internationally, few countries globally have recognized the regime, and it remains sidelined by ASEAN, a key regional bloc.

The country’s military rulers see the election as a potential step toward legitimizing their rule and as their best chance to gain broad international recognition.

Analysts warn the election is likely to be a sham, designed to consolidate the junta’s power. The regime controls only a limited portion of the country and lacks the logistical capacity to conduct free and fair elections in opposition-held areas. It has imprisoned or killed thousands of opposition figures, pro-democracy activists, and journalists, and has shown no signs of easing restrictions ahead of the vote.

At a July 2025 ASEAN meeting, Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan — representing Malaysia in the rotating ASEAN chairmanship — characterized Myanmar’s upcoming election as premature, urging instead a focus on ending violence and fostering inclusive dialogue.

“We advised Myanmar that an election is not a priority for now,” Hasan said. “The priority is to cease all violence … so that all parties can sit together.”

In September 2025, foreign ministers from Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines suddenly cancelled a planned visit to Myanmar. The delegation had been set to discuss the country’s upcoming elections before being turned away by a military junta that appears resistant to outside input on the December vote.

Contrary to this skepticism about the elections, Russia and China have led the way in supporting the planned vote.

China has publicly reiterated its support for the election, promising “technical assistance” for the junta’s census and voter-roll efforts, and expressing backing for what it calls a legitimate “domestic political process.”

Meanwhile, Russia has signed cooperation agreements with the regime’s election commission and committed to sending observers, offering political cover, and signaling that the military’s agenda retains powerful allies.

Beijing and Moscow’s support — grounded in strategic, economic, and regional-security interests — gives the junta diplomatic insulation, material support, and a veneer of legitimacy that rights monitors argue masks the reality of widespread repression, territorial fragmentation, and electoral manipulation.

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