The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo signed an early-stage agreement Tuesday with the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group, raising hopes for an eventual ceasefire.  

Talks between the warring parties have been brokered by Qatar, but broke down in August when the two sides missed a deadline for a final peace deal. 

An earlier agreement, signed on July 19, set Aug. 17 as the deadline for a final deal, which remains out of reach. M23 itself emerged from a failed peace deal forged roughly 16 years ago, which was never fully implemented. 

According to Qatari officials, a key element of any deal includes the restoration of government rule throughout the country, including in two major cities captured earlier this year by the rebels. While the DRC echoed this interpretation, stating that the agreement includes the complete withdrawal of rebel forces, M23 leaders have publicly disagreed and declared their intention to remain in the territory they have captured.

This week’s agreement presents a framework for monitoring an eventual ceasefire. A deal on prisoner exchange was signed in September, but the exchange itself has yet to take place. 

Under the terms of this week’s agreement, a monitoring body will be created to oversee the implementation of a ceasefire agreement. The body will feature representatives of the Congolese government, the M23 rebel group, the regional International Conference on the Great Lakes Region bloc, and the U.N. peacekeeping mission to Congo, known as MONUSCO, which will provide logistical coordination. 

According to reports, the African Union, Qatar, and the United States will participate as observers. 

Significant hurdles remain on the path to a full peace agreement. M23 has made enormous territorial gains this year, including in major regional cities, and has signaled its reluctance to give up those gains. 

“We are in Goma with the population,” one M23 spokesman told the Associated Press earlier this year in reference to one of the cities captured this year from government forces, “and we are not going to get out.”  

Another M23 leader took a more nuanced approach, saying that the July declaration empowered the DRC’s government to resume its responsibilities across the country but fell short of mandating that M23 conduct a complete withdrawal. 

Even if M23 were to dismantle its operations and relinquish control of the parallel administrations currently governing several areas of eastern DRC, it is far from the only militant group operating in the region. Without a robust force to fill the void, its withdrawal would likely create a dangerous power vacuum. 

Roughly 120 distinct militant groups are active in the DRC, each with its own leadership, supply lines, and motivations. Among them is the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a jihadist militia aligned with the Islamic State group and known for its brutality and hostility toward Christianity, the majority religion in the country. 

Highlighting the continued risk to civilians, a church attack in the small eastern town of Komanda in late July led to the slaughter of more than 50 Christians. Militants affiliated with the terrorist group ADF are credited with the attack, which took place as local Christians gathered for a nighttime prayer vigil. Shops and homes in the area were attacked as well. The attackers had all left by the time security forces arrived and took at least 20 child hostages, according to sources. 

Without decisive action to ensure the safety of civilians, restore government authority, and address the complex network of militias fueling instability, the DRC risks repeating the cycle of broken promises and renewed bloodshed that has defined past peace efforts. 

For the people of eastern Congo — especially vulnerable Christian communities — the coming days could determine whether the region moves toward peace or plunges deeper into conflict. 

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