7/24/2025 Myanmar (International Christian Concern) — After months of fighting, the military junta ruling Myanmar has captured Nawnghkio, a strategic town in northern Shan state, according to government and local sources.

Rebels seized Nawnghkio in late 2024 as part of an anti-junta offensive across multiple states. Another major city, Lashio, was similarly recaptured by junta forces in April. The junta’s advance paves the way for further military operations in rebel-held territory. It has already led to waves of civilian arrests in the days following the fall of Nawnghkio.

According to data released this week by the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, the regime has arrested 29,427 people since taking power in 2021 and killed 6,995 people, marking increases of about 50 prisoners and 60 killed in the last two weeks.

While Nawnghkio may represent a strategic victory for the junta, its grip on the country remains tenuous. It is believed to retain solid territorial control over less than half the country. In late 2024, the military government controlled only 21% of the territory, compared to 42% controlled by rebel forces, according to the BBC. While some territory has changed hands since then, government forces continue to struggle with low morale and insufficient manpower.

Despite its fragile hold on power, the junta insists it will conduct elections in the coming months — part of an effort to gain legitimacy on the international stage, four years after seizing power from a democratically elected civilian government in 2021.

In March, the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) released a report criticizing Myanmar’s military government for its systematic repression of religious minorities and urging the international community to increase attention to the plight of the persecuted in Myanmar.

“The country has seen the displacement of over 3.5 million people in recent years,” the USCIRF report noted, “including more than 90,000 in Christian-majority Chin State, 237,200 in Kachin State, and one million Muslim-majority Rohingya refugees.”

March’s earthquake and the airstrikes that followed have only worsened these already high levels of displacement.

Though a strong majority of the population is ethnic Burman — and an even greater percentage is Buddhist — the communities that make up the remainder are well-established, well-organized, and, in most cases, predate the formation of the modern state by centuries.

In many instances, Myanmar’s ethnic minorities have taken on distinct religious identities as well. About 20% to 30% of ethnic Karen are Christians, while other groups — such as the Chin — are more than 90% Christian. This overlap of ethnic and religious identity has created a volatile situation for believers.

Representing an extremist interpretation of Buddhism, the Burmese military has a long history of violence against the people of Myanmar, including ethnic and religious minorities like the Muslim-majority Rohingya and Christian-majority Chin.

The junta is known to abduct children, forcing them to walk ahead of their troops through minefields. In many cases, their victims are members of ethnic and religious minority communities fighting back against the atrocities of a military that has waged a decades-long war of ethnic and religious cleansing.

Despite this support, experts believe that the Burmese military is rapidly atrophying, with as few as 150,000 personnel remaining after the loss of about 21,000 through casualties or desertions since the 2021 coup. This figure is significantly smaller than previous estimates of 300,000 to 400,000 and calls into question the junta’s ability to sustain its nationwide military campaign, especially after a series of high-profile losses in recent years.

To read more news stories, visit the ICC Newsroom. For interviews, please email [email protected].