10/22/2024 Myanmar (International Christian Concern) — News this week that four Russian warships and a logistics vessel arrived in Yangon for joint exercises with the Myanmar military comes as ethnoreligious minorities in the country continue to suffer severe persecution.

Myanmar’s military, known locally as the Tatmadaw, has waged a decades-long war against the country’s ethnic and religious minorities and has increasingly relied on support from Russia and China to sustain its campaign of violence.

The international community has largely shunned the Tatmadaw in the years since its 2021 takeover of Myanmar’s government in hopes of pressuring it to return to democracy. However, these efforts have shown little fruit, partly due to Russia and China’s continued economic and military support. Along with these countries, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand have all recognized the military-led government and supported it in various ways.

Last week, reports surfaced that junta leader Min Aung Hlaing was planning his first trip to China. While still not confirmed, this trip would underscore China’s support for the junta as it prepares to conduct its first national elections next year.

The planned election is already struggling for legitimacy, as the junta only controls a small portion of the country and is not believed to be capable of or willing to conduct free and fair elections. Since taking power in 2021, it has imprisoned more than 27,000 people, including many pro-democracy activists.

Despite support from Russia and China, experts believe that the Burmese military is atrophying rapidly, with as few as 150,000 personnel remaining after the loss of about 21,000 through casualties or desertions since the 2021 coup. This number is significantly smaller than previous estimates of 300,000 to 400,000 casualties and calls into question the junta’s ability to sustain its nationwide military campaign, especially after a series of high-profile losses in recent months.

Militias representing various ethnoreligious minorities began coordinating a major offensive in late 2023 and have seized numerous military strongholds in the months since. Earlier reports from the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar suggest that anti-junta militias’ gains have reduced the area under solid Tatmadaw control to as little as 17%.

In July and August, rebels seized Lashio, an important artery for trade between Myanmar and China. It is also home to an airport and one of the military’s 14 regional headquarters. Reports indicate that the rebels may have captured three generals located at the base, while the commander may have fled to China. Other sources have said that the deputy commander, Brigadier General Tin Tun Aung, was killed in a rocket attack near Lashio. The rebel fighters claim that 4,000 fighters and their families surrendered, which, if true, would make the defeat in Lashio the military’s worst to date.

Rebel control of Lashio gives the militias control over a significant artery of trade between Myanmar and China.

Myanmar is a patchwork mosaic of ethnic and religious groups. Though a strong majority of the population is ethnic Burman, and an even greater percentage is Buddhist, the communities that make up the remainder are well-established, well-organized, and, for the most part, predate the formation of the modern state by centuries.

In many cases, Myanmar’s ethnic minorities have taken on a distinct religious identity as well. About 20% to 30% of ethnic Karen are Christians, while other groups are more than 90% Christian. This overlap of ethnic and religious identity has created a volatile situation for believers.

Representing an extremist interpretation of Buddhism, the Burmese military has a long history of violence against the people of Myanmar, including against ethnic and religious minorities like the Muslim-majority Rohingya and Christian-majority Chin.

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