ICC Note:  In an unexpected move this week, the Turkish court agreed to transfer American Pastor Andrew Brunson from prison to house arrest. The charges against him have not been dropped and his next trial date is set for October. Given that the previous week the court had denied the transfer request, this turn of events came as a shock for many. In an article published by al-Monitor, the author asks the question, what changed?   

07/27/2018 Turkey (al-Monitor) –   A Turkish court abruptly agreed to release US pastor Andrew Brunson from prison July 25, after almost two years, and place him under house arrest instead. The decision comes just a week after the court had refused his request.

How did this happen? Was the court influenced by pressure from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo? The threat of sanctions from Congress? Was it US President Donald Trump’s tweets, or perhaps the friendly fist-bump between the two presidents at the NATO summit in Brussels?

The court simply cited health reasons for its decision. It didn’t disclose details, though Brunson is said to suffer from depression. The evangelical pastor from North Carolina, a missionary in Turkey for more than 20 years, was detained in October 2016, not long after the failed coup in July of that year. Erdogan primarily blames US-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen for the coup attempt, which Gulen denies. Brunson is charged with espionage, aiding Gulen and supporting terror organizations. Prosecutors are seeking a prison sentence of 35 years. Brunson denies the charges, and many think his arrest was politically motivated.

Erdogan has long been frustrated by the US refusal to extradite Gulen, repeatedly saying, “Give us the priest and take your pastor,” proposing a swap of Brunson for Gulen.

On July 19, six US senators introduced bipartisan legislation to sanction Turkey financially by cutting off loans from the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The proposed legislation, called the Turkey International Financial Institutions Act, reiterates US policy to “oppose any effort by a foreign government to detain US citizens for political leverage.” It stands against “arbitrary detention of and denial of freedom of movement to US citizens (including dual citizens) and locally employed staff of the United States mission to Turkey.” It calls for the international financial institutions to oppose any loans or other assistance to Turkey — except for humanitarian causes, or projects designed to decrease Turkey’s dependence on oil from Iran and Russia.

The proposed US sanctions, after several private and public warnings to senior Turkish officials, come as Turkey’s economy is facing serious challenges. Although Erdogan repeatedly brags about his willingness to lend money to the IMF, Turkey ranked No. 2 among recipients of International Finance Corporation funds, with $927 million in new long-term commitments. Turkey’s dependency on this institution is well established. For example, in 2013 the corporation delivered $985 million for various projects in the country. And Turkey ranked No. 1 among European Bank for Reconstruction and Development borrowers in 2017, with about $1.8 billion in new commitments.

In such a precarious economic environment, any talk of sanctions should worry Turkey’s government and public. Yet only a handful of independent media outlets reported about the US legislation. Indeed, the Senate’s webpage where the text was posted could only be accessed in Turkey via a proxy, such as a virtual private network, or VPN. Although social media accounts promptly shared photos of the proposal with prominent journalists, Erdogan did not comment on it, so the pro-government media chose to ignore it.

Given that the United States can erect several short- and medium-term hurdles for Turkey, why doesn’t the Turkish government seem bothered by the potential legislation?

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