ICC Note: Days after a world powers agreed to a Syrian ceasefire, Russia is already backing out of it’s obligations to refrain from bombing opposition groups in civilian areas. ICC’s Emma Lane (Regional Manager for the Middle East) had noted in an interview that the crux of the ceasefire depended on Russia’s adherence to it, being the main military power in the region. Russia originally had proposed many of the ceasefire stipulations during the meeting of world leaders in Germany, but fired back when French officials called out the Russian military for targeting non-extremist opposition groups and civilian areas.  Although the ceasefire wasn’t a traditional deal–as it wasn’t signed by the original warring parties–it is still seen as a positive step in relieving the suffering that has taken place over the past few years.  Moscow has since reiterated its intention to continue bombing Al-Nusra and ISIS forces, but its strong backing of the Assad regime will likely conclude in a continuation of this proxy war on behalf of the Syrian government.  

2/13/2016 Syria (Reuters) – Russia said on Saturday a Syria ceasefire plan was more likely to fail than succeed, as Syrian government forces backed by Russian air strikes took rebel ground near Aleppo and set their sights on the Islamic State stronghold of Raqqa province.

International divisions over Syria surfaced anew at a Munich conference where Russia rejected French charges that it was bombing civilians, just a day after world powers agreed on the “cessation of hostilities” due to begin in a week’s time. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry reiterated accusations that Russia was hitting “legitimate opposition groups” and civilians with its bombing campaign in Syria and said Moscow must change its targets to respect the ceasefire deal.

The conflict, reshaped by Russia’s intervention last September, has gone into an even higher gear since the United Nations sought to revive peace talks. These were suspended earlier this month in Geneva before they got off the ground.

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If its forces retake Aleppo and seal the Turkish border north of the city, Damascus would deal a crushing blow to the insurgents who were on the march until Russia intervened, shoring up Assad’s rule and paving the way to the current reversal of rebel fortunes.

Russia has said it will keep bombing Islamic State and the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, which in many areas of western Syria fights government forces in close proximity to insurgents deemed moderates by Western states. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, asked at a security conference in Munich on Saturday to assess the chances of the cessation of hostilities deal succeeding, replied: “49 percent.”

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