03/29/2021 United States (International Christian Concern) – When an international coalition cornered Islamic State (IS) in Baghuz, a small town in eastern Syria, in early February 2019, it seemed at first glance that the radical Islamist group was on its last legs. In a sense, it was—after all, IS-controlled territory in Iraq and Syria had fallen from the 40,000 square miles it controlled in late 2014 to a scant 1.5 square miles around Baghuz. And on March 23 coalition forces managed to wrest even that small territory from IS control, eliminating the last of IS’s territorial claims in the region and crippling IS operations in the process.

But now, two years after its defeat in Baghuz, IS has emerged as a significant threat to international peace and stability once more—this time in Africa.

The extent and depth of IS influence in the many regional conflicts plaguing Africa is sometimes debated, though there is consensus that IS presents a growing problem on the continent. In some instances, terror groups seem to follow patterns more aligned with al Qaeda than IS and occasional IS hesitancy to claim responsibility for attacks conducted by its affiliates suggests an emphasis on the authority of the local command structure rather than IS headquarters in the Middle East.

Regardless of the finer points of IS influence over African terror groups, it is clear that the threat of the IS in Africa is growing and, if allowed to metastasize further, will lead to widespread instability, deepened poverty, and significant loss of life across the continent.

Early History of the Islamic State in Africa

IS gained its first footing in Africa towards the end of 2014 when IS was at the peak of its influence in the Middle East. Beginning with the Algerian Jund al-Khilafa in September 2014, terror groups across north Africa were the first to pledge allegiance to IS. A group of fighters in Libya pledged allegiance to IS in October 2014, while groups in Egypt and Tunisia followed suit shortly after.

Today, there are many more affiliates all around Africa, including in Nigeria, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mozambique. Each affiliate presents a unique danger to the society where it operates, though none of them is as large or as deadly as IS’s affiliates in the Sahel.

Islamic State Influence in the Sahel

The disproportionate impact of the rising IS threat in Africa on Christian communities is nowhere as clear as in the Sahel. A variety of factors have led to years of violence and conflict in the area, a situation worsened by IS’s open goal of eradicating Christianity from their area of control.

The Sahel is home to Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), the largest IS affiliate in Africa. ISWAP, in northwest Nigeria, broke off from the Boko Haram terror group in August 2016. Boko Haram had pledged allegiance to IS in March 2015 under the leadership of Abubakar Shekau—the formation of ISWAP as a separate entity came after Shekau refused to accept an IS command to transfer leadership of the group to Abu Musab al-Barnawi. ISWAP has grown in regional power and influence since the split.

A study of IS activity in the Sahel reveals two truths about IS activity in Africa.

First, the circumstances of ISWAP’s original formation show that IS headquarters in the Middle East gives direct orders to at least some of its affiliates in Africa—something that suggests authority and command rather than simple ideological alignment. Shekau’s refusal to follow IS’s command and his ability to keep much of his fighting force after ISWAP split off suggests that it has limited authority, but the fact that the command was given at all indicates that IS desires to control operations in Africa.

This level of control raises the concern that IS may use its African affiliates to orchestrate coordinated attacks across the continent. In one gruesome example of this danger, ISWAP released a video in 2019 in which its fighters slashed the throats of ten victims and shot another in revenge for the death of IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. A voice-over on the video states that the victims were all Christians, and that their death should serve as a warning for other Christians in the area.