ICC NOTE: The Philippine island of Mindanao is embroiled in corruption, political games, and Islamic terrorism. as a result over 150,000 people have been killed in the last half century and millions of others displaced attempting to escape the violence. Conspiracy theories abound among the people as to possible connection between government officials and radical groups. Whether they are true or not, Indigenous Christians and other ethnic minorities are caught in the middle facing violence, persecution, and loss of life and property. Whether a peace agreement can be reached between the government and rebel groups in Mindanao will be a story to continue monitoring; and whether that peace agreement will hold. 

3/10/2016 Philippines (UCA News) – The shooting of Saudi scholar Ayed Al-Qarni in the southern Philippines on March 1 has fueled fears of a competition among Philippine supporters of the so-called Islamic State (IS) to gain formal entry into its network.

But the country’s murky political waters could also be hiding forces out to influence results of the coming national and local elections in May, or further derail the peace process with Muslim rebels in Mindanao, or both.

The attack on Al-Qarni happened as government troops mopped up after days of fighting in Lanao del Sur province that killed 60 people and displaced 20,000 others.

The enemy, the so-called Maute Group, included former Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) guerrillas and some foreign fighters.

Hours before the attack, retired police intelligence director Rodolfo Mendoza warned that small groups are plotting “bigger, bolder attacks” to woo the IS, which has been aiming to establish a global caliphate.

Talks of a caliphate are not new to Mendoza.

A decade ago, he helped dismantle the Rajah Sulayman Movement (RSM), which backed the Jema’ah Islamiya terror group’s goal of establishing an Asian caliphate.

Composed mainly of converts, the RSM believed Islam was the country’s dominant religion before Spain brought in Catholicism four centuries ago.

Western intelligence analysts like to harp on about IS’s caliphate ambition, but most of Southeast Asia’s rebel groups are focused on establishing their ethnic identity.

Movements across ideological lines are prompted by shelter and training needs, and sometimes a cynical belief that whoever hurts the enemy is a friend.

Smaller groups like the RSM engaged in terrorism have killed more than 100 people and forced Manila to take stock of Mindanao, where half a century of fighting has killed more than 150,000 people and displaced millions of others.

These attacks eased the pressure on the Abu Sayyaf Group and the MILF, and led former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to sign an agreement on ancestral domain for Mindanao in 2008.

The country’s foreign allies called it a giant step in the peace process, but political opposition and a Supreme Court decision killed the deal.

Intense fighting followed, displacing half a million people over the next two years.

Most leaders of the RSM and the Abu Sayyaf are in jail or dead. But these groups hogged the headlines recently by posting videos of their pledge of allegiance to the IS.

The RSM video was taken in a high-security portion of a jail with many political prisoners. The Abu Sayyaf video showed it had linked up with three other smaller groups, including the Maute Group in the province of Lanao del Sur.

An outbreak of violence often raises conspiracy theories in the Philippines.

Some MILF leaders now see a botched 2015 anti-terror operation in the province of Maguindanao as a “premeditated” move to kill the peace process.

The bungled police operation killed 44 police commandos and their target — Malaysian bomb maker Zulkifli bin Hir alias Marwan.

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